British biologist Rachel Grant finds toads can predict earthquakes
FOR ages, mankind has craved a tool that can provide an early warning of that terrifying moment when the earth begins to shake - and if a scientific paper published today is confirmed, we may at last have found one.
The best hope yet of an earthquake predictor could lie in a small, brown, knobbly amphibian, it suggests.
The male common toad (Bufo bufo) gave five days' warning of the earthquake that ravaged the town of L'Aquila in central Italy on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300 people and displacing 40,000 others, the study says.
Biologist Rachel Grant of Britain's Open University embarked on a toad-monitoring project at San Ruffino lake 74km north of L'Aquila, 10 days before the 6.3-magnitude quake struck.
Her two-person team observed the site for 29 days, counting toad numbers and measuring temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall and other conditions.
By March 28, more than 90 male toads had mustered for the spawning season, but two days later, their numbers suddenly fell, Grant reports.
Several dozen ventured back on April 9 for the full moon, a known courtship period for toads, although the tally was some 50-80 per cent fewer than in previous years.
After this small peak, the numbers fell once more, only picking up significantly on April 15, two days after the last major aftershock, defined as 4.5 magnitude or higher.
In addition, the number of paired toads at the breeding site also dropped to zero three days before the quake. And no fresh spawn was found at the site from April 6 until the last big after-tremor.
Ms Grant said the toads' comportment is a "dramatic change" for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
Several dozen ventured back on April 9 for the full moon, a known courtship period for toads, although the tally was some 50-80 per cent fewer than in previous years.
After this small peak, the numbers fell once more, only picking up significantly on April 15, two days after the last major aftershock, defined as 4.5 magnitude or higher.
In addition, the number of paired toads at the breeding site also dropped to zero three days before the quake. And no fresh spawn was found at the site from April 6 until the last big after-tremor.
Ms Grant said the toads' comportment is a "dramatic change" for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
After this small peak, the numbers fell once more, only picking up significantly on April 15, two days after the last major aftershock, defined as 4.5 magnitude or higher.
In addition, the number of paired toads at the breeding site also dropped to zero three days before the quake. And no fresh spawn was found at the site from April 6 until the last big after-tremor.
Ms Grant said the toads' comportment is a "dramatic change" for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
In addition, the number of paired toads at the breeding site also dropped to zero three days before the quake. And no fresh spawn was found at the site from April 6 until the last big after-tremor.
Ms Grant said the toads' comportment is a "dramatic change" for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
Ms Grant said the toads' comportment is a "dramatic change" for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
Eager to answer the riddle, Ms Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
The toads' two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
Previous research has attributed perturbations in the ionosphere to releases of radon, a radioactive gas generated underground, or to gravity waves prior to a quake, although much about this phenomenon is unclear.
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
In the quest to find an earthquake predictor, elephants, horses, wolves, snakes and fish have all been variously put forward.
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
This study, though, is exceptional. It puts the flesh of data and first-hand observation on the bones of anecdotal evidence, even if there is no confirmed explanation as to why the toads bolted as they did.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," Ms Grant said.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles and use these as a form of early warning system."
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
The paper is published in the Journal of Zoology by the Zoologic
By April 1 - five days before the quake - 96 per cent of the males had fled.
